2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE DECIDING FACTORS

2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE DECIDING FACTORS

In less than six months, the much talked about general election, and presidential election in particular, will be taking place in the most populous black nation in the world. There is no doubt that whosoever wins the contest will have enormous job to do if he is serious enough, but that is another discourse for another day. 

The first important thing we need to note is that elections are mostly won on the basis of emotion, and less on logicality. In Nigeria, for instance, many voters will vote on the basis of sentiments rather than reasons as shown in paste election records. 

Ideally, if we're to go by way of reasons: the sensible questions we should be asking will be around the candidates manifestos about these key issues:

1. Security:  We need to know whose security template is capable of taking us out of the wood? Whose past antecedent among the gladiators have demonstrated capacity to ensure safety of lives and property in their previous public service? 

2. Economy: sincerely speaking, almost all the three main gladiators have a grasp of the economy considering their antecedents, but we need to ask further, who has a better record? What are they proposing? Beyond vague promises, who is providing the 'How' to solve the problem of poverty, unemployment, inflation, rising interest rates, excessive importation, mounting debts...? 

3. Education: ASUU is on strike and it will have a decisive impact on how people vote comes this general election. Who is providing the solutions to incessant ASUU, NASU strikes? How do we make our education to be functional from primary to tertiary level? Can we sustain the present system of government subventions to schools, or our tertiary institutions should be given total autonomy and be allowed to charge conmesurate school fees with the danger of making education to be out of the reach of the poor? Can we have  education financial institutions that we grant loans to students who will pay later, so far there will be guaranteed jobs after such schooling? We need to look at the candidates past records and what they're proposing to make such judgement. 

4. Corruption: every successive governments in Nigeria always has as part of its manifestos the need to fight corruption. The next administration cannot be an exemption. How do we eliminate or reduce the wastes in the civil service? How does the next president remove the ghost workers? How does the next president block the loopholes that allow a single man to corner over  80 billion naira in less than three years? How do we reduce or eliminate the 10 percent on contracts to be awarded? How do we prevent inflation of contracts by civil and public servants? 

5. Infrastructures: What are the candidates promising in sustaining the present infrastructures drive without mounting debts for unborn generation? What solutions is the next president offering in terms of PPP arrangements? Who has done it before? These are questions will should be asking? 

6. Agriculture: at present, the country is spending heavily on importation of consumables and agricultural products all thanks to insecurities from the Northern part of the country. Who is providing us with the solutions on how to increase our agricultural produce? Who is talking about processing of such products? What solutions is he providing beyond mere talks? Are the plans workable or implementable? 

The list is endless, but I doubt if we're ready for such discourse in this election. Rather, what may be deciding factors in this forthcoming election are:

1. Religion: we're likely to see an election that will be decided on the basis of religion than anytime in the history of this country. The Muslims are likely to vote massively for a party that represents their interests, and I foresee christians doing the same. 

2. Energy and Figure: the ages of the candidates and their perceived stamina will also play  roles. Who appears to be youthful and full of energy? Who can engage in interview or discourse for over an hour without losing thoughts will play a role in whom some people will vote for, especially the new voters who are mostly found on social media? 

3. Party Structure: the structures or platforms where the candidates are marketing themselves will play significant role. It will determine who is able to mobilize enough voters using door to door campaign? Who is able to effectively monitor the results of the election from polling units to collation centers? 

4. Ethnicity: like religion, this election is largely going to be decided by ethnicity. We may see especially from the south to the North, people voting along ethnic lines. It won't be as pronounced as religion but it will play a decisive role in who becomes the president of Nigeria comes 2023. 

5. Personal Network: all the major gladiators are not new to the electoral game. Be that as it may, the saying 'your network is your networth' will play a significant role in whom becomes the next president. You know why? Friends, acquaintances and political associates are likely to vote and work for the person who they think we protect and promote their interests. Politicians don't do politics for the sake of politics, they  do it for the embedded gains in it. So the question is who has the largest political followers across the country? It may be a pay back time for such a candidate? 

6. Money: Money! Money!! Money!!! Yes money is going to play a decisive role in whom becomes the next president of Nigeria. Each of the candidates need money for campaign billboards, for radio jingles, television ads, social media campaigns, and perhaps, 'vote buying'. The question is who has gotten the war chest? Who can muscle enough fund and use it appropriately for campaign purposes? 

7. God's Factor: power belongs to God and he gives it to whom he chooses. From the Bible, we learnt that God usually grants the people their wishes, he gives  leaders either to ameliorate the sufferings of the people or punish the people for deviating from his path. So we can't rule out God's will as far next election is concerned. In fact, it is the most significant factor. 

Sanmi Adekola is a Social Commentator, and Entrepreneur.